Moon Of Liberty Polling – Four polls to update

WAP

Polling

Theresa May remains in control

With four National opinion polls in the last two weeks Theresa May remains in total control and her honeymoon period continues as Labour’s problems show no real signs of turning in the polls. Over the four polls the Conservatives have an average advantage of over 10% with only YouGov recording a single digit Conservative lead. This also shows in the seat projections with ICM, TNS & Ipsos-Mori producing regional projections of a Tory Majority in the 90’s in contrast to the majority of 36 with YouGov.

The three polls with double digit leads suggests the North is the biggest problem. Both in the North-East and North-West reduced support for Labour appears to be a product of the post Brexit scenario where many Labour heartlands voted against the advice of most Labour politicians. The red team could be losing both ways as there also appear to be the stirrings of Lib Dem improvement in London at Labour’s expense. Their pro-EU stance may be losing them support in the North, while their perceived loop warm support for the EU may be seeing them begin to lose some ground in London too, a double edged sword.

In Scotland there are no signs of SNP support slowing down or any respite for Labour. The SNP are on over 48% on average across the four polls, with the Tories very definitely now ahead of Labour there too. regardless of whether you believe YouGov, the other three, or somewhere in the middle is the real position, it is very clear that unless they are all totally wrong, the Tories remain in an extraordinary position six years into Government.The Tory lead on the Average Poll of polls goes up to 7.8% and the average seat projections would give the Tories a slightly reduced majoirty of 62 against 66 before these polls, due to YouGov and the last ICM poll predicting a 100+ majority landslide. Al the latest numbers can be found here

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (17/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 45% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 6% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 371 Lab 194 LD 6 SNP 56 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 94

ICM (16/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 12%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 374 Lab 190 LD 7 SNP 54 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 98

YouGov (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 38% Lab 31% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 7%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 343 Lab 219 LD 9 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 36

TNS (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 26% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 13%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 370 Lab 196 LD 9 SNP 53 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 90

 

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Moon Of Liberty Politics/Comment – Editorial Comment

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Politics

Hinkley Point-less delay

This was the week confirmation was supposed to go through that the nuclear power station was to get the go ahead. Indeed the confirmation from EDF did come, the French company did indeed confirm they wanted to go ahead, the deal also required a £6bn investment from China General Nuclear Power Corporation. Apparently the Chinese involvement has spooked Theresa May who had delayed the final decision to review the plans. Given this is a project on which there has already been considerable dithering, surely there has been plenty of time to do this. The technology s being provided by the French company thus the concerns over Chinese intentions seem bewildering.

Contrast this with the speed with which the HS2 project was backed, a multi billion investment to allow someone to get from London to Manchester 20-40 minutes quicker in 20 years time, a need rather less important that Britain’s energy security. In addition it does not engender good will towards France at a time when good relations could be key to a post Brexit deal. The delay is a pointless waste of time, the project needs the go ahead soon, and hopefully this dithering is not going to become a trait of Theresa May’s Government.

The Dishonour list

David Cameron’s resignation did him much credit, but his final honours recommendations have not done his legacy any service. All 48 names on this list he has submitted were supporters of the remain campaign in the Referendum, ignoring many loyal supporters who were on the other side to him who have served the nation well during his time in office. That is not to say none of them deserve their nominations, but Cameron’s biggest weakness was always his comfort for the cosy clubs and an element vindictiveness for those who were on the outside and this list is indicative of just that. He has rewarded those who joined his cosy club during the Remain campaign, to keep his place in the ultimate cosy club, the European Union.

The most sickening call of all is the suggestion Will Straw, the leader of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign who actively encouraged campaigners to abuse the death of Jo Cox for political gain in smearing opponents, is apparently to become a CBE. The Moon Of Liberty supports the honours system as a part of our constitution, but those who oppose it will legitimately feel their case has been strengthened by this abuse the system to reward his Dave’s cosy club rather than honours for those who have worked in the national interest as it should be. As for Will Straw, the Moon Of Liberty hopes a way is found to put a stop to that particular insult to democracy given his shameful and disgusting behaviour during the Referendum.

Moon Of Liberty Politics – Editorial – The Owen Smith dilemma

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Moon Of Liberty Editorial Opinion

THE OWEN SMITH DILEMMA

The Labour Party is now facing a dilemma. They resigned on mass, forced a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn, and have ended up with a leadership challenger who policy wise is not that far away from the man himself. Owen Smith wants to re-introduce the 50% tax rate that loses the treasury money, wants to spend, spend spend on this that and everything just like Corbyn. His 20 point policy plan released today beings with a chilling promise to concentrate on ‘equality of outcome rather than equality of opportunity.’ He also want to reverse all the corporation and inheritance tax cuts promised as well as a new ‘wealth tax’ on the top 1% of earners.

This is not the policy platform of a moderate, the problem for Labour moderates now is that having gone through the whole process of fighting for the right for the chance to remove Corbyn, they now have to pretend Smith is a moderate. This will be fueled by Corbyn’s supporters who will laughably claim Smith is a Blairite as a tactic to try and win the election, or worse, some of them may actually believe it.

So what if Smith wins? There is clearly no way he can win a General election any more than Corbyn can. Smith is further left than Ed Miliband, possibly considerably so. His appeal will still be far too narrow. Yet that election defeat for Smith will be depicted by Corbyn’s supporters as a defeat for the ‘moderates.’ simply through anger that Corbyn was removed. If Smith becomes leader and loses a General Election the Unions, Momentum and Corbyn’s other supporters will revel with glee in a ‘we told you so’ attitude which could move Labour into hard left territory for much longer than if they just let Corbyn crash and burn and then hope to regroup afterwards. Real Labour moderates have a huge dilemma, the consequences of an Owen Smith win could be even worse than Corbyn hanging on. This is not what the coup intended, but it is what it has got.

Moon Of Liberty Politics – Editorial

Blue_Moon2

Politics

Tim Kaine, a smart VP Pick for Hilary Clinton

On face value it looks like Donald Trump has had a bounce in the polls from last weeks Republican Convention. However these are national polls, what actually matter is the state by state races and how that effects the electoral map. The race to 270 electoral college delegates is what matters, not the national share of the vote.

Given what occurred in 2012, the logical route for the Republican’s to get to 270 would be to hold all the Romney states and win Florida, Ohio, Virginia plus one smaller state (Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire the most likely) to achieve the requirement. While Florida and Ohio are, as ever, close and the polls show it, the evidence is Virginia is a tougher ask. Without Virginia the other route to 270 would be to win Pennsylvania, a state the Republicans have not won since 1988.

However the appeal of Donald Trump may lend itself to this challenge rather better due to the high blue collar white vote in the state being higher than elsewhere. The polls in Pennsylvania are much closer that expected. Sufficient to offer Trump a second route to 270. This is why the pick of Tim Kaine as Hilary Clinton’s running mate is a smart one. He is the senator for Virginia and this on top of the apparent advantage the Democrats already have in Virginia may put the state totally out of reach for Trump.If this proves the case it closes off one of the two routes for Trump to get to the required 270 delegates. It means he would have to win Pennsylvania (Or Michigan, which Trump thinks is winnable, but the polls have not shown a shred of evidence to back up as yet)

As a result Trump may be left with only one path to victory, reliant on winning a state the Republicans have failed to take for almost 30 years. He is also hampered further by the fact three states Romney won, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia also look vulnerable.This means he will have to shore up these states, and win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Any loss of any of these states would hand Hilary Clinton The White House. That’s why Hilary’s pick is smart, it may just narrow Trump’s path to a six state must take all scenario including being reliant on delivering a state the Republicans have not won for nearly 30 years.

Moon Elections – Launceston Central by-election

WAP

Elections

Launceston Central by Election

Lib Dems hold on to safe seat with reduced majority

Once again there was only one by election this week. Last we were in the far north of England in Carlisle, this week it is to the deep south-west in Cornwall. The seat is a bit of a rarity these days, a safe Lib Dem seat. Surprisingly Labour did not stand, leaving the Conservatives to try and challenge in a seat the Lib Dems were never going to lose.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election 14/01/2016

Launceston Central (Cornwall) – LD 515 Con 226 Green 65 Christian Alliance 12LD Hold – Swing (From May 2013) LD-Con 9.1%

National UK Projected Share (Based on last 20 by elections fought)

Con 36.4% Lab 28.8% LD 17.6% UKIP 9% SNP 3.9% Green 2.3%

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Conclusion – Both the Lib Dems and the Tories will be happy. The Lib Dems safely hold the seat and were in no danger of losing it and will use the big win as part of their ‘fightback’ narrative. The Tories have earned a creditable swing to close the gap in second place with their vote share increasing by 10% on 2013 and for future contests Labour will be damaged by not standing and having to start again from scratch.

On the projected vote share, the Tories lead over Labour increases from 7.4% last week to 7.6% as a result of this by election.

 

PMQ’s – Not what the doctor ordered

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Politics

Prime Minister’s Questions – 12:00 pm 13/01/2016 At The Palace of Westminster, London

Corbyn let’s Cameron off the hook 

With the big political issue of the day being a junior doctors strike going on that very day, a strike the Labour party broadly support, PMQ’s was the perfect opportunity for Jeremy Corbyn to raise, er housing. Yes housing? Really housing? At first you though maybe this was a clever attempt to catch the PM off guard and maybe he will raise that other huge issue later, but no Mr Corbyn decided to use all six questions on housing.

So there we are. With that settled Mr Corbyn started rather well. Pointing out the new money announced to re develop housing estates would barely pay for the bulldozers. Good line. Cameron hit back with the well known statistic that the Tories have built more council homes than Labour did in 13 years, but on the issue, Cameron was waffling. Corbyn added that some of those being bulldozed will be some of the same people using Cameron’s ‘Right to buy’ policy. Will they be guaranteed to be re-housed? Good stuff from Corbyn, Cameron even accused Corbyn of being a small ‘c’ conservative in desperation for an answer. It didn’t work and Corbyn’s plan go on housing appeared, shock of shocks, to be working.

However true to form Corbyn could not keeping going. He asked a weak question linked to housing and the living wage which tried to do the same as the question before linking the issue to Cameron’s other policies, but it failed to have the same impact. It allowed the PM to set out a more general record of things he has.re-build some confidence and accuse Corbyn of standing in the way of potentially 1.3 million council tenants wanting to buy there own homes. He asked Corbyn why that was his policy? When the PM resorts to asking questions at PMQ’s, there is an obvious response in pointing out it is the PM supposed to be answering the questions, Corbyn did not take it and ploughed through another pre-written question. After a good start Corbyn was losing his way and allowed Cameron to point out there was no answer to his question and ‘what was he scared of allowing 1.3 million council tenants to own their own home’ Cameron was starting to get on top as Corbyn had let him off the hook.

In the final act Corbyn resorted to his play of asking a question from the public. He still has not understood this does not work, takes the edge off his own performance and makes it easy for Cameron to respond. This is exactly what occurred. Corbyn also made the mistake of choosing a question from a pensioner concerned about the so called ‘bedroom tax.’ Cameron pointed out with a slightly venomous hint of sarcasm that pensioners don’t pay this to cheers from the Tory benches who knew with that line it was all over, Cameron had won. There just enough time to have a general flurry about the policies of the Labour Party to dig the knife in, a party who don’t believe in home ownership, defence, work or Britain. Cameron finishes on top in an exchange he really should not have done, same old story for Jeremy Corbyn.

MOON OF LIBERTY VERDICT  (Out of 5)

David Cameron 3 Jeremy Corbyn 2 – Jeremy fails to take his chance

Moon Elections – Botcherby by election – 07th Jan 2016

WAP

Local by Elections

Botcherby on Carlisle

Labour lose council seat in Carlisle

There was just one by election last night to kick off 2016 made all the more interesting by the fact it was located in Carlisle, a key 2020 Westminster marginal, and in an area of Carlisle that had been affected by the flooding and had been visited by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. The seat was a Labour defence won on General Election day, Jeremy’s visit obviously did not do the trick.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD


 

Local by elections – 07/01/2016

Botcherby (Carlisle) Ind 381 Lab 250 Con 115 Ind GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Ind 10.7%

National Projected share (Based on last 20 local by elections)

Con 36.1% Lab 28.8% LD 18.1% UKIP 8.9% SNP 3.9% Green 2.3%


 

Conclusion

Labour – another failure for Labour, albeit in this case to an Independent, in a council seat in a Westminster marginal. The Labour share of the vote was also up only 0.4%. 2016 starts in the same dismal way as 2015 for the opposition.

Conservative – The Tory vote fell as well by 5%, as they were squeezed allowing the Independent candidate to win. As a result the Tories have excuses for the fall, and even on these figures the Westminster seat of Carlisle would stay blue assuming the Tory and Labour totals were consistent across the constituency. As a one off the Tories will not be too concerned as they were not competitive in terms of winning the council seat, but will be keen to ensure it does not become a trend.

The Figures – The result means the Tory lead on the National projected share over Labour falls slightly from 7.7% to 7.3%